During 2020, it looked like the Democrats could head towards a more progressive future. Bernie Sanders was the betting favourite until Super Tuesday on the 3rd of March to become the Democratic nominee. However, that date saw Joe Biden, the former vice-president, winning 10 out of the 14 states holding primaries, and that catapulted him to the odds boards top spot to get nominated and moved into the White House.
Kamala Harris has odds of +120, while Biden is just behind with odds of +125. Much further down the pecking order is Pete Buttigieg, with US bookies odds of +1800, and Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with odds of +2500 each. Some big names come even further down the list, including Michelle Obama at +3000 and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders with odds of +6500.
Logically, it would appear that Biden, as the current president, would have the best betting value as the 2024 election nominee. Yet Harris is currently topping the list. Why is this the case?
When the Biden administration took over in January, a wave of relief swept the nation after the 6th of January’s insurrection. Donald Trump, the former premier, had received a Twitter ban, and it seemed normalcy had returned. The 46th president came into office with a high approval rating and popularity. But this has plummeted since.
His approval rating has dropped to the 30s – much of what he ran on hasn’t come to fruition. Furthermore, questions are growing about his mental and physical health. This all seems to point to a new red wave which has become evident when looking at the odds for the midterm election in which the Republicans are favoured to win both the House and the Senate, with Trump now standing as favourite in 2024’s US presidential election odds.
Although Biden’s numbers suggest that the VP may be a reasonable alternative to bet on as Democratic nominee, it’s important to note that her approval rating isn’t as high as the president’s. It’s lower than most other vice presidents over the past few decades.
While it’d be quite monumental for both the vice president and president to be missing from 2024’s Democratic nominee ticket, it could happen if things go as Pete Buttigieg has planned. Rumours have been swirling around that Biden may step down, and Harris could move into the Supreme Court. It would pave the way for Buttigieg (or Mayor Pete) to take over.
The former mayor of South Ben has a lot of things going for him nationally. Not only was he a military officer, but he was also the youngest-ever transportation secretary, the youngest of all Biden’s administration’s cabinet members, and the first cabinet member to be openly gay. Furthermore, a recent documentary on Amazon Prime looks set to give its national public image a major boost.
