Five Best NFL Win Total Bets in 2023 [Expert Analysis]
The 2023 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s been a long wait for the new campaign to get underway, and it looks set to be a fascinating 18 weeks of regular season action.
Ahead of the first games of the season, we have picked out our five favoured NFL win total bets in 2023…
Chicago Bears under 7.5 wins – 9/10 at 10bet
The Bears won three games in 2022-23, and it’s unclear where they’re going to find another five wins from. They backed Justin Fields by trading down in the Draft, and they have one of the bigger rest advantages in the league.
Adding Tremaine Edmunds was a big win during free agency. The offence remains one-dimensional with their reluctance to let Fields throw, and the defence still projects to be below league average after giving up the most points in the league last season.
There are plenty of winnable games on the Bears’ schedule, but this line still seems too high. It would be a surprise if they were better than 6-11.
Miami Dolphins over 9.5 wins – Evens at QuinnBet
Miami was 8-3 last season before fading down the stretch. Their offence was unstoppable with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. They might have the third-hardest schedule by projected wins, but the over still represents great value here.
With Jalen Ramsey and Vic Fangio on board to enhance their defence, the upside is huge. This Dolphins roster is capable of going 11-6 or even 12-5 if Tagovailoa can play 15+ games.
Jacksonville Jaguars over 9.5 wins – 4/6 at Betfred
Jacksonville reeled off a 6-1 run to end the 2022-23 regular season before beating the Chargers in the Wild Card round. Trevor Lawrence announced himself as an elite quarterback, posing some MVP-calibre numbers during that period.
It was a slightly underwhelming offseason, but this young Jags roster should build on their 9-8 record from last season. They are by far the best team in the AFC South, and should be able to get to double-digit wins without pulling off any major upsets.
Houston Texans under 5.5 wins – 6/5 at 10bet
DeMeco Ryans has his work cut out to get the Texans to six wins even after picking up C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson with two of the first three picks in the Draft. Houston finished 3-13-1 last season – they are unlikely to pick up more than one win before their bye in Week 7.
This is clearly another rebuilding year for Houston. Developing their young talents and defining an identity under Ryans is the goal. Even the most optimistic Texans fans will not expect them to compete for the Playoffs. Perhaps they do make meaningful steps in the right direction, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win 6+ games.
Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 wins – 10/11 at QuinnBet
Minnesota is coming off a 13-win campaign, and while it wasn’t the most eventful offseason, they can surely hit this over. Minnesota Vikings lost several veterans, including Za’Darius Smith and Adam Thielen, but there were some intriguing additions, too.
Three preseason losses aren’t much of a concern. There’s still plenty of talent left on this roster and Brian Flores should help to pull the defence up towards league average. Getting to nine wins seems a very reasonable expectation.