Super Bowl LVIII takes place in Las Vegas on February 11th. After a season of offensive struggles, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, with the San Francisco 49ers representing the NFC following a dramatic win over the Detroit Lions.
The usual pre-Super Bowl fanfare has the added furore around Taylor Swift’s trek from Tokyo to Vegas, with some sportsbooks even offering props on a possible post-game engagement.
Our focus, though, is on the traditional game lines for this article…
The 49ers have hit the over in 11 of their 19 games this season. While Kansas City has been a very profitable team on the under, this line is too low to go anywhere other than the over.
Kansas City’s defence has stifled the Ravens and Dolphins. They went over this number when they faced Josh Allen’s Bills, however, and that’s the pattern we are expecting this game to take. San Francisco have scored 58 points over their two Playoff games.
There is no chance the Chiefs are spooked by the Big Game. They dropped 38 points in a spectacular Super Bowl win 12 months ago, and their offence has only faltered in the Playoffs when the offensive line was in tatters.
San Francisco has an elite defence, but they still conceded 31 to the Lions, 21 to the Packers and 33 to the Ravens in Week 16. With how Patrick Mahomes has been playing, and with Travis Kelce looking back to his best in the Playoffs, the Chiefs should be able to move the ball.
Great offence gets the better of great defence. Both teams feel like a lock to score 20+ points, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they reached the sixties in total scoring.
There has been significant line movement since markets opened. Some began with the Niners -1, but they are -2 or -2.5 with most sportsbooks at the time of writing (Wednesday 31st lunchtime).
The Chiefs have a better against the spread record than the Niners, and Super Bowls are often decided by superior quarterback play. Brock Purdy has repeatedly proven he can go toe-to-toe with the league’s best, though, and San Francisco’s offence is massively more talented than Kansas City’s.
Yes, the Chiefs have got some big plays when they have needed them in the Playoffs, but we just can’t have sufficient confidence that their receivers will step up against this Niners defence.
It’s never going to feel good betting against Mahomes. Plenty of people are going to go for the Chiefs moneyline bets, particularly on the back of consecutive road wins, but the Niners are favourites for a reason. The Evens price with bet365 to take the extra half point is well worth it.
