How Betting Syndicates Work
A betting syndicate is a group of individuals who combine their knowledge and resources to place bets.
While this concept applies to all forms of wagering, including lotteries, it is most common in sports betting. By working together, members share their expertise to find the best betting opportunities and make more informed decisions to help them beat the bookmakers and achieve long-term success. Also, by pooling their funds together, sports betting syndicates can place larger bets at reduced risks.
A straightforward example of how syndicates work can be often seen in the lotteries, especially in the UK. Many colleagues, friends, and families often pool funds to purchase several tickets, with any winnings split evenly amongst members.
However, a syndicate in sports betting is more than just a group of individuals placing bets together as a collective. It is a well-coordinated operation with much going into its planning and execution. So, let’s delve further into how these syndicates operate, from their formation to what they do.
A syndicate is usually formed by like-minded individuals who share a common interest in gambling to guarantee and maximize profits. A sports betting syndicate can be created in a variety of ways. Some are made up of groups of friends, family members, or work colleagues who enjoy putting action on sports together. At the same time, other consists of serious professional gamblers in an organized community. Whichever it is, these groups usually include individuals with required expertise like data analysis, risk assessment, and necessary knowledge of sports and specific betting markets.
The formation of a syndicate also involves the establishment of a definite system for the decision-making process. It typically involves assigning roles and responsibilities to each individual in the group, such as the analysts who will provide valuable insights, a leader who will make final decisions, a manager tasked with necessary logistics, etc.
Another vital part of the formation process involves drawing up necessary betting syndicate rules, terms, and conditions. It acts as guidelines for the operations, especially for bet placement and winnings distributions.
Examples of Betting Syndicates
Typically, betting syndicates stay out of the public’s view for obvious reasons. But there have been a few syndicate betting success stories over the years. One of the most well-known ones is that of Mathew Benham’s Smartodds. Matthew Benham, a former VP of Bank of America, created his syndicate, Smartodds, in 2004. The group was successful, helping Benham grow his wealth to hundreds of millions. Smartodds is also a research hub that provides statistics, analysis, and predictions to professional punters.
Besides Benham’s Smartodds, many other successful syndicates have popped up on the betting scene, from the Computer Group to Tony Bloom’s Starlizard. We will check out a few of these big betting syndicates later in our article.
What Do Betting Syndicates Do?
Now that we have explored syndicate betting’s meaning and how it works, we should investigate what they do. As mentioned, a lot goes into the operations of these groups beyond collectively placing wagers. The members usually utilize various techniques and sophisticated strategies that require extensive knowledge, analytic skills, and loads of market study hours.
So, let’s dive into some of the key activities that betting syndicates engage in to ensure they achieve their profit objective.
Market Analysis
The modus operandi of many syndicates in sports betting is usually to exploit mispriced odds or line movement at the most advantageous moments. As a result, one of the critical roles of some, if not all, syndicate members is to constantly monitor and analyze the market to identify the potential value of wagers and assess the probability of any outcome.
It usually involves studying odds, understanding market trends, predicting upcoming trends, and monitoring relevant factors that can indicate the probability of one outcome over the other. Ultimately, in-depth market analysis helps syndicate groups make more informed betting decisions.
Shop for Lines
A simple fact about sports betting is that different bookmakers may offer slightly different odds for the same event, and these variances, regardless of how small, can significantly impact your overall profitability. So, another major thing professional betting syndicates do is shop across several sportsbooks for the most favorable odds available. Doing this allows them to maximize their potential returns enormously, as the wagers here are usually quite large.
Time Bets for Maximum Impact
Alongside the continuous market analysis and line shopping, timing plays a crucial role in syndicate betting. Group members typically choose when to place their bets carefully to maximize their potential impact. They usually look for opportunities that can result in mispriced lines and value bets. It can result from specific conditions in a game, such as injury updates, weather conditions, etc. Some football betting syndicate groups may also bet on half-time instead of full-game odds, taking advantage of the discrepancy that may come up due to bookmakers pricing it on the fly.
Analyze Data and Statistical Models
Betting syndicates rely on data analysis and statistical modeling to assess betting positions. They analyze historical data, player and team statistics, and other relevant information to make informed predictions. They also use the data to identify game patterns and model how they can impact future outcomes.
The members of professional syndicate groups are constantly adjusting their models and equations to improve their accuracy. The better these models get at making accurate predictions of outcomes in sporting events, the better the syndicate becomes at finding and maximizing value.
Simulate Contests to Determine Probable Outcomes
Some of the best betting syndicate groups utilize simulations and advanced modeling techniques to determine probable outcomes of sporting events. Once they have collated all the necessary data and prioritized and weighed them, they put the model to good use by running thousands to millions of contest simulations.
Simulating the competition based on various parameters and factors determines the range of possibilities for different outcomes. It aids in more accurate betting decisions.
Compare Predictions to Implied Probability
The best way to find value in betting is by comparing the implied probability of a wager offered by bookmakers with your estimated probability. As a result, another crucial task of syndicate systems is to do this comparison.
After research and analysis or running numerous contest simulations, a syndicate betting tip shows an estimated probability of how a game is expected to play out. The syndicate can also easily calculate the implied probability of any bet with a simple equation using the odds offered by sportsbooks.
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
After comparing the implied and estimated probability of a bet, if the former happens to be lower than the latter, it means there is good value for the wager. Hence, this comparison helps syndicates identify where the bookmakers’ odds do not accurately reflect the actual likelihood of an outcome, providing an opportunity for profitable betting.
High Volume Betting
A significant upside to joining a betting syndicate is the capability for high-volume wagering. By pooling resources together, these groups can afford to place larger wagers and as many bets as they want. So, unlike individual bettors, these groups tend to place loads of bets regularly, costing hundreds of thousands of dollars for the professional ones. For example, a horse betting syndicate will bet on just about any horse racing event if the lines show good and profitable value.
Although these syndicates will naturally lose many high-volume wagers, they will be profitable in the long run if the analysis, modeling, and other crucial factors are spot on.
How Syndicates Place Bets
Betting syndicates usually employ various techniques and betting strategies when placing bets. They would often use any betting platform they find convenient, whether online or land-based. As for the decision on what bets to place, syndicates use various approaches, from market analysis to shopping for lines, statistical models, etc., to identify the best opportunities.
That said, most groups usually have designated members responsible for placing the bets once the decision has been made. They typically distribute these wagers across multiple betting sites to avoid suspicion, as most bookmakers frown on syndicate betting. Some syndicates sometimes utilize what is known as “runners,” non-member individuals, to place wagers on their behalf. It allows them to distribute their bets further, thereby increasing the volume.
Distribution of Winnings
As mentioned, the primary goal of any standard or arbitrage betting syndicate is to make profits. So, when they become profitable, splitting the winnings amongst the members is necessary. To do that, most syndicates would often draft terms that would fairly govern the distribution of winnings amongst its members. It is often formalized in a written agreement with everyone that joins the group.
Typically, the profits gained are distributed proportionally based on each member’s contribution to the betting pool resource. However, it is not always as simple as this. Some professional betting syndicates with specific roles and key contributors may distribute their winnings differently. For example, the individual responsible for analysis or critical bet strategies may receive a larger share of the pot than other regular members.
Ultimately, any syndicate group must be transparent and clear with communication on how the distribution of winnings will go. This way, there will be less conflicts among the members.
