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Rugby Union 2023 Six Nations Betting Odds, Predictions & Winning Tips (Round 5, March 18)

2023 Rugby Six Nations (Round 5) Betting Tips & Predictions

It all comes down to this. After 12 Test matches and five weeks, the Six Nations heads into its final round with a winner still undecided. Every single match has something on the line, with a desperate battle at the other end of the table, too, to avoid the wooden spoon. Who will win the Six Nations 2023? Can Ireland hold on, or will France defend their title?

2023 Six Nations Championship: Key Details

With Ireland heading into the final round of the Six Nations 2023 unbeaten, they are in the box seat to claim the title this weekend. However, the deal still needs to be done – France will be seeking a big victory over Wales, which will force the Men in Green to perform against England in Dublin. Meanwhile, Italy are looking to snaffle a win that could force Wales into the wooden spoon position. How will Round Five of the Six Nations unfold? Join us as we outline our Six Nations 2023 predictions.

Tournament: Rugby Union 2023 Six Nations, Round 5
Venues: Stadiums in Ireland, France, and Scotland
Round 5 Date: Saturday 18 March, 2023

2023 Six Nations Betting Odds: Round Five

For those who want to bet on rugby Six Nations, here’s an overview of the betting odds from online bookmakers ahead of the weekend’s games:

Home Odds Away Odds
Scotland vs Italy 1.10 (1/10) 6.50 (11/2)
France vs Wales 1.05 (1/20) 9.00 (8/1)
Ireland vs England 1.12 (1/8) 6.00 (5/1)

Looking at these odds that we’ll base our 6 Nations predictions 2023 on, it seems as though each of these three matches will be cut and dry. Scotland are the heavy favorites to defeat Italy at home, while France should easily dispatch Wales, and the bookies expect Ireland to deal to England in Dublin. However, is there ever a straightforward Six Nations round?

With Italy desperate to upset Scotland to salvage something from their impressive yet winless campaign, France requiring a 20+ point win over Wales, and Ireland having the pressure of playing for a Grand Slam in front of a home crowd… Surely, something has got to give. Read on for our Six Nations betting tips, where we make rugby predictions and what that will be.

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2023 Six Nations Recap: Round Four

The 4th round saw the landscape of this Six Nations tournament shift significantly. Here’s how the three matches unfolded:

  • Wales defeated Italy 29-17
  • France defeated England 53-10
  • Ireland defeated Scotland 22-7

With these results, all but Ireland and France have been eliminated from the running in this year’s Six Nations. Here’s how the points table looks after four rounds:

Won Lost Points Differential Points
Ireland 4 0 +66 19
France 3 1 +46 15
Scotland 2 2 +8 10
England 2 2 -22 10
Wales 1 3 -50 5
Italy 0 4 -48 1

Ireland have put themselves in a fantastic position, opening up a four-point lead over France. However, France’s big victory over England has given them a sniff – if they do so again against Wales, they’ll force Ireland into a tricky must-win match against England in Dublin.

Rugby 6 Nations Betting 2023: Outright Winner Odds

Heading into the final round of the Six Nations 2023, only two teams remain capable of winning the tournament. Here’s what the outright winner odds look like:

  • Ireland to win @ 1/10 (1.03)
  • France to win @ 14/1 (15.00)

Clearly, Ireland are huge favorites to win, especially for Irish bookies. This is for a good reason because there are only a few scenarios at play where Ireland do not walk away with the trophy on Saturday night.

The following permutations are at play this weekend:

  • If France lose to Wales, then Ireland win the Six Nations regardless of their match against England
  • If France defeat Wales but don’t get a bonus point, then Ireland need to either defeat England, or lose by less than seven points, in order to win the Six Nations
  • If France defeat Wales, with a bonus point but by less than 20 points, then Ireland need to either defeat England, or lose by 1-7 points (depending on France’s points differential)
  • If France defeat Wales with a bonus point, and by 20 or more points, then Ireland will need to defeat England in order to win the Six Nations

Bottom line, France needs to repeat what they did last week, and destroy Wales. Given how both teams have been playing, there’s a good chance of this. However, they’ll then need England to put on an uncharacteristically good performance against Ireland and upset the World No.1 team (or come very close). This is far less likely, given that England lost by 43 points last week.

Dublin had better restock their bars quickly after St. Patrick’s Day because chances are, they’ll be getting drunk dry deep into Sunday morning with Ireland celebrating their Six Nations 2023 win.

6 Nations Betting Predictions: Round Five

Here’s a more detailed look at each of our picks for this weekend’s games, with our Six Nations 2023 Round 5 tips:

Scotland vs Italy Prediction and Betting Preview

Technically, this is the only match that doesn’t have the Six Nations 2023 title on the line in some way, shape or form. However, both Scotland and Italy still have plenty to play for – Scotland can finish as high as second place on the table, while Italy can still avoid the wooden spoon. Both teams will be bitterly disappointed at their results last week, with Scotland seeing their title chances extinguished and Italy missing what felt like their best shot at a win.

It’s tough to predict how each team will respond to this disappointment. Will they come out fired up or struggle to find the motivation for this final match? Based on how Italy have responded to the disappointment of close losses to France and Ireland in this competition, we say they’ll come out in good shape and be motivated to claim one win for the season. Expect a good effort from them that will yet again fall short, but not by much.

Best bet: Italy +15 @ 1.91 (10/11).

France vs Wales Prediction and Betting Preview

One of the rare treats in rugby union is when a team steps onto the field, knowing more than a simple win is required. This will be the case for France against Wales, as Les Blues will know, at a minimum, they need to defeat Wales by 20 points and collect a bonus point to give themselves even an outside chance at snatching the title from Ireland.

Expect France to come out firing and play some high-risk, aggressive rugby in front of the home crowd. While this could create chances for Wales, it’s more than likely to end in a cricket score instead, based on how France executed last week against England. Back the Men in Blue to come up with the goods here and set up a cracking final match of the tournament in Dublin. Even French bookmakers give healthy odds for another trash by their guys, paying x4 for the victory with a margin of 31.

Best bet: France -31 @ 4.00 (3/1)

Ireland vs England Prediction and Betting Preview

By the time Ireland step onto the field on Saturday evening in Dublin, they’ll know what’s required of them. It could be that they’re already Six Nations victors, or they simply need to avoid a big defeat, or they need to win in order to claim the title. More than likely, France will have forced them into needing a win against England.

How will the World’s No.1 side fare with all this pressure? A raging home crowd, the potential of a first-ever Six Nations Grand Slam in Dublin, and the title on the line. Will they crack? England are being given almost zero chance of an upset after being trounced by France last week, but does that make them dangerous? We say this will be an absolute nailbiter, with England bouncing back from last week and exceeding expectations, but ultimately Ireland will lift the trophy.

Best bet: England +6 @ 4.00 (3/1)

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  • Italy +15 @ 1.91 (10/11)
  • France -31 @ 4.00 (3/1)
  • England +6 @ 4.00 (3/1)

The past six weeks have recently delivered one of the best Six Nations competitions. Two teams are still in the hunt as we head into the final round, with France the massive underdogs and looking to pull off the upset win. They’ll need to perform and have some help from England – an ask which we think will be a little too big.

Expect Dublin to be partying on Saturday night as Ireland claim the Six Nations title with a Grand Slam victory. Still, there are some lucrative bets to be made at legal bookies to have a celebration, even if you aren’t an Irish rugby fan.

Content Writer

Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at BetZillion.

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