Boris Johnson’s days as the UK’s Prime Minister might end soon. The Tory internal government has already taken over, and the first 2 rounds of the general election are already done.
If you’re aware, the prime minister in the UK is not elected directly by the masses. Rather, the Conservative Party will decide who will become the next PM. At this very moment, each candidate is going live on television to participate in the debates.
Although there are 5 candidates in the running right now, it’ll come down to only 2 by the end of next week. The remaining 2 will participate in hustings until the prime minister is elected in early September. That’s how things work for this particular election.
From what we’ve seen, Rishi Sunak seems the most likely winner as he has the most backing from the Tory Government. Penny Mordaunt is riding right behind him with backing from 83 members (so far).
Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, and Tom Tugendhat are still on the run. But it’s safe to assume that only Rishi and Penny will come out on top for the next round.
An exciting prospect for this very election was Attorney General Suella Braverman. But she got out of the race early and has been showing her support for Rishi Sunak.
Whatever we’ve discussed so far is based on poll results and ballot backings. But what do the bookmakers think about the Boris Johnson replacement? Who is the next UK PM favourite among the bettors?
At the beginning of the election rounds, Penny Mordaunt was considered the favourite by almost all major bookmakers. But recently, Rishi Sunak came out on top with over 47% likelihood of winning. In comparison, Penny has a probability of 30.3%.
For the time being, the bookmakers are keeping Miss Liz in the running, with around a 24% winning probability.
Tom Tugendhat is an interesting market in this election. He looks confident about his abilities to take over the election, but top-rated UK bookmakers don’t seem to agree. According to early predictions, he only has a 1% chance of winning.
At this point, it’s apparent that Rishi Sunak is leading the race with the most backing from Tory MPs. However, the ultimate results come down to who the Conservative Party members decide as their leader.
According to some new intel from YouGov, Penny Mordaunt is on the favourite list of Conservative Party members. The 2nd position is even more interesting because the party members have Kemi Badenoch, something you may not have thought of.
