What Are the Odds for Snow on Christmas Day 2021?
Many people enjoy betting on whether or not we’ll have a white Christmas as the 25th of December approaches, and it often causes people to keep a close watch on weather forecasts when the countdown to the day itself begins.
To meet the Met Office’s rules for white Christmases, a single snowflake has to be seen falling during the 25 hours making up the 25th of December somewhere within the UK. Weather stations, therefore, watch the skies carefully!
So, what are the chances of snow this year? Will we have another warm day such as we experienced in 2016 – a year when the UK temperatures rose to 14 degrees Celsius?
Latest Odds for a White Christmas in the UK
At the moment, the odds on the UK weather suggest we could see some snow on the 25th of December 2021, and those odds are backed by statistics.
On average, the UK gets snow at Christmas once every 6 years. December, on average, experiences around 3.9 days of snowfall – equating to around one fall of snow each week in the month. More snow tends to fall towards the end of the month and Christmas week itself. Lots of focus this year is on Scotland. There are good odds on Aberdeen seeing Christmas snow and on Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The special betting market for snow at Christmas could likely shift between today and the 25th of December. The odds will depend on the emerging weather patterns over the weeks to come. Since it seems at the moment that December is going to be a pretty cold month, there’s a fair chance the prices may be slashed nearer the time, especially if a significant amount of snow falls before the day itself. Yet, the market is as popular as ever since people traditionally like to take a flutter on whether snow is going to make an appearance as they’re eating their Christmas dinner.
The latest odds on Christmas Day snow in the UK for 2021 have Aberdeen leading the way with odds of 11/4. Edinburgh and Glasgow are up next with odds of 3/1, with Newcastle following up behind at 4/1. Belfast is 5th on the list with odds of 9/2, then Birmingham, London, Dublin, Cork, and Leeds are all standing at 6/1. Finally, Bristol, Cardiff, and Liverpool are bringing up the rear with odds of 8/1.
Scotland Looking Most Likely
It isn’t surprising that top-rated UK bookies believe Scottish cities like Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Aberdeen to be the top contenders for receiving snow on the 25th of December. Last year, Aberdeen was the long-running favourite for snow until Norwich took the first position in the previous few days of betting as weather stations recorded snow during the middle of the month.
It flips in the betting odds like this, which indicate how fast markets may move after it becomes known by the Met Office what kind of weather is likely to be expected during the week that leads up to the big day.
The bookies’ current odds suggest there’s under a 25% likelihood of snow being reported anywhere across Ireland and the UK except in Aberdeen. Yet, Leeds, Belfast, and Newcastle may see the odds of them being slashed in the coming weeks as hopes of widespread snow over Christmas increase.
Bookmakers know that usually, the stakes wagered on this special market are small since they represent a market that the punters enjoy as a tradition. Usually, all eyes focus on northern England and Scotland regarding white Christmases, and that’s likely to stay the same this year.
What Can Qualify as a White Christmas?
Traditionally, the Met Office will confirm if there’s been a white Christmas. It requires only a single snowflake to have fallen in any location nationwide. For a single city to prove they had a white Christmas, a verification must be obtained from the Met Office that snow fell within that region.
The rules said, until 2006, that if one snowflake landed on the roof of the Met Office in London, there would be a white Christmas, but punters forced experts to consider other cities as well as the capital.
Now, the website for the Met Office states that the number of locations taken into account has now increased and includes places like Belfast, Buckingham Palace, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Manchester, and Cardiff. Thanks to the latest analytical tools, the Met Office now can obtain a fuller picture of how the weather looks across the UK on the 25th of December.