What Does History Tell Us?
Interestingly, only Boro have had playoff success in the past, but that was way back in 1988, when they overcame Chelsea at home to earn a place in the old Division One. Of the last 24 League One playoff winners, only seven were not first-time winners of the competition.
Meanwhile, finishing position can give some limited insight into the potential playoff winners. This represents bad news for Sunderland, with the fourth seed having failed to win any of the last 11 finals.
League position of last 11 playoff winners:
| Final Position |
Promotions |
| 3rd |
4 |
| 4th |
4 |
| 5th |
3 |
| 6th |
0 |
On the other hand, though, there is little to separate the first and second seeds over the 34-match history of the playoffs. The club finishing highest has won 12 of 33 tournaments whereas Nottingham Forest’s success over Huddersfield last season means that second seeds have won 11. Advantage Luton and Coventry here, then.
One of the curious playoff curses, meanwhile, has been firmly exorcised over the course of the last couple of years. Teams in red and white had a historically terrible record in the playoffs, losing 17 straight finals across second, third and fourth tiers before Brentford’s success two years ago. Forest then followed suit last year, giving heart to Sunderland.
This is the time of the season where anything can happen, but historically the playoffs favour the top three seeds. Middlesbrough’s scoring power has to be respected, though, and with a serial winner in the dugout in the form of Michael Carrick, their marginal favouritism should be respected. There is little to pick between the sides, though.
24/7 support
