It’s rematch time in the UFC, with Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje headlining the main event of UFC 291. With a stacked card of mixed martial arts fights taking place in Salt Lake City, Utah, this Saturday night, the winner of this lightweight fight will not only have bragging rights but will hold the vacant UFC “BMF” belt also.
When these two met five years ago, Justin Poirier walked away the victor. However, a lot can happen in half a decade at this level, and the two men that enter the Octagon this weekend will be very different fighters.
Will we see a more measured, cautious approach from Justin Gaethje? Whose fitness will last the longest? Is this going to be fought standing up, or will the mat play a big role?
We answer all these questions and more with our UFC 291 Poirier vs Gaethje II predictions based on the latest Poirier vs Gaethje 2 odds.
| ℹ️ Event: | UFC 291 Main Event, for Vacant UFC “BMF” Belt |
| 🏟️ Venue: | Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States |
| 🗓️ Date: | July 29th, 2023 |
| ⏰ Time: | From 6:30 PM EST |
These two fighters met in April 2018, with Dustin Poirier winning just 33 seconds into the fourth round through a flurry of vicious punches landed on Justin Gaethje. Since then, each fighter has gone 6-2-0 in the UFC, with both losing to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, making this rematch a tantalizing affair.
Before diving into our UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje predictions, let’s take a look at the bookies’ odds ahead of this clash. Here are the latest Poirier vs. Gaethje odds:
There’s little to separate these two in the online betting MMA, with Dustin Poirier having his nose ever so slightly in front of Justin Gaethje at 1.73 (8/11), compared to 2.10 (11/10).
Dustin Poirier has been on an exceptional run in the UFC, with the exception of two third-round rear naked chokes. His losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov are the only blemishes on his record in the last seven years, with one coming in 2021 and the other in 2019. Outside of that, the American has been excellent, twice beating Connor McGregor, as well as Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
Besides the psychological advantage of having won this fight five years ago, Poirier’s main strength compared to Gaethje is in the grapple. He has seven submissions to his name compared to Gaethje’s two and is an all-round more proficient fighter on the mat. Many would argue he’s also a better boxer.
It’s a similar story for Gaethje – things have been going great, with the exception of his losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov. Admittedly, his losses were more recent, and his wins came over weaker opponents by less convincing margins as well.
Undoubtedly, the way Justin Gaethje wins this is through his knockout power. With 18 knockout wins to his name from 28 professional fights, Gaethje knows how to end a fight. He may not be the most skilled or adept, but if he catches Poirier flush with one of his bombs, it will be all over.
Enough talk, let’s get to our UFC 291 Poirier vs Gaethje II predictions and most interesting options offered by Utah bookies. Whether you’re after high-odds UFC or just a little taster to get your feet wet this weekend, we have the Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje tips for you.
2 (100%)
0
This time five years ago, Dustin Poirier was good enough to negate the knockout threat of Justin Gaethje. Since then, Poirier has only got better. While Gaethje has also improved, it’s hard to see Poirier not doing the same on Saturday night that he did in their first bout. His ground game will dominate Gaethje if it gets to that, and he’s also got a handy boxing arsenal to draw on too. Expect a tough bout, but Poirier to get the win.
0
(100%) 1
While their 2018 encounter ended in Gaethje getting knocked out, we believe there’s a strong chance of this fight going the distance. Gaethje has tempered his approach since then and doesn’t fight quite as recklessly, meaning he’ll be less likely to open himself up to opportunities for a knockout.
Poirier is as skilled a defender as ever and could well suck up time on the mat for large swaths of this fight. He’ll know that if it goes to the judges, he’s an excellent chance of winning, so he won’t be phased by that. Both men have great fitness, too, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if this goes to a decision – or at least deep into the fifth.
0
(100%) 1
There’s a clear path to victory for Gaethje, and that’s how he’s won the vast majority of his fights so far—landing a big bomb on the face of his opponent. We don’t think it’s the most likely outcome in this clash, but there’s no denying that there’s a healthy chance it will occur. For those who aren’t inclined to back Poirier, then this is the best bet to take, with a nice return and four options for its realization.
There’s nothing quite like a UFC rematch, and that’s exactly what fans in Salt Lake City will be treated to at UFC 291 on Saturday night. It’ll be a ripper of a fight, but we say this one goes the distance, and Justin Poirier wins, claiming the UFC “BMF” belt in the process. Follow our MMA betting tips and come out richer after the fight ends.
