Canelo Alvarez Vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3 Betting Odds and Predictions
There are few greater joys in boxing than trilogy fights between bitter rivals. Think Ali vs. Frazier, Fury vs. Wilder, and now: Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin.
We break down each fighter’s recent form and stats, ways to win, and look at bookmaker picks that can be made at the best place to bet on boxing before Saturday night’s rematch between Alvarez and Golovkin.
|Date:||Saturday, September 17th from 10:00 PM ET|
|Venue:||T-Mobile, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA|
Alvarez vs Golovkin: The Trilogy So Far
It has been four years since Alvarez and Golovkin were last in the ring together, but the tension of these two match-ups is still palpable in the minds of boxing fans.
Fight one in 2017 saw an undefeated GGG come up against the rising star Alvarez. Golovkin’s trademark style dominated the fight, coming forward hard, putting Canelo under pressure, and landing plenty of punches. Those live streaming the ninth round saw Golovkin walk straight into an overhand right from Alvarez and stutter. However, the champion regained his composure and boxed well to bank what seemed like a narrow but clear win over his Mexican opponent. Still, the judges did not see the fight in the same light, scoring the fight a split draw.
A rematch was quickly set but delayed after news Canelo failed a drug test. This added a twist to the rivalry between the two fighters, as Golovkin came out with several strong comments, accusing Alvarez of cheating.
When the rematch occurred in 2018, a year after the first fight, Alvarez was much better. He was bigger, stronger, and more confident. Despite Golovkin outpunching him by 232 punches to 202, Alvarez landed highlights with 27 more power punches and came away the winner with a majority decision. The result of Alvarez vs Golovkin 2 brought Gennadiy the first-ever defeat of his career.
Alvarez Vs. Golovkin Odds
Live bet sites have Canelo Alvarez as the heavy favourite in this one, with odds of 1.2 (1/5) for the Mexican to win. On the other hand, Gennadiy Golovkin (nicknamed GGG) is the 4.95 (4/1) underdog in this rematch.
The reality is that since their last fight, Canelo has gained more muscle and confidence, while Golvokin has aged and slowed down. These disparate trajectories are indicated by the most comprehensive odds seen in an Alvarez vs Golovkin fight.
Alvarez vs GGG III Predictions
Here are three of the best bets we suggest taking in our Alvarez vs Golovkin predictions:
Fight to Go Over 10.5 Rounds @ 2.6 (8/5)
Considering the two previous meetings between these two fighters went the distance, there’s a good chance that this one will do the same.
We can expect Canelo to fight confidently against GGG, but take his time. The Mexican will rely on his movement and body punches to wear his older opponent down before doing damage through counter rights when the opportunity presents itself. Chances are, Golovkin will be able to weather this storm for at least the first ten rounds.
Betting on the fight to go over 10.5 allows for the fight to end in a decision while also accounting for the possibility of a late knockout.
Alvarez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 10 to 12 @ 5.75 (9/2)
Given his excellent conditioning, if Golovkin was to get knocked out, it would likely be late in the piece.
Even though Golovkin has never been knocked out before, if it ever was to happen, now would be the time. His four wins since the fighters last met were relatively unconvincing, having won earlier this year over Ryota Murata only in the ninth round and picking up several decision-wins before that. Golovkin has noticeably slowed and, while still a great champion, is beginning to show his 40 years of age. Slower reactions mean a higher chance of Golovkin getting caught by Alvarez’s right hand, particularly late in the fight.
A KO in one of the last three rounds is a real possibility and pays excellent odds.
Golovkin to Win Outright at 4.95 (4/1)
There’s no hiding the fact that Golovkin is nearing the end of his boxing career and is the underdog here.
He is older and slower. However, as his most recent fight showed, he still can finish opponents, even if it’s less comprehensive than earlier in his career. If Golovkin can bring a suitable variation to his game, he can make Alvarez second guess his approach and capitalize with a well-placed power punch. The 37 knockouts to his name indicate the threat he still possesses. Chances are, Golovkin will retire after this fight and will be motivated to go out on a high.
With any money on Golovkin getting quadrupled if he wins, it’s worth a shot at the old lion roaring one last time and springing an upset here, either by knockout or decision.
Canelo Alvarez Form
Since their last fight, Alvarez has gone from strength to strength.
He has fought eight times, stringing together seven wins before recording a surprise loss early this year. With an overall record of 57-2-2 and 39 knockouts, the 32-year-old Alvarez is in his prime, claiming the light heavyweight title and becoming the undisputed super-middleweight champion.
Alvarez Advantages Over Golovkin
Standing at 5’8” with a 70.5” reach, Alvarez will be eager to bounce back after losing to the undefeated Dmitry Bivol in May 2022. He has continued to pack on muscle, has excellent movement with a solid right-hand counter to target a knockout or body punches, and is now the physically dominant fighter out of the two.
Gennady Golovkin Form
In the four years since they last met, Golovkin has remained undefeated.
With a record of 41-1-1 and 37 knockouts, the 40-year-old has led an illustrious career. The only blemishes on the Kazakh’s record are one loss and one draw, both to Alvarez.
Golovkin Advantages Over Alvarez
At 5’10” and reaching 70.0”, Golovkin has a two-inch height advantage over Canelo. However, Golovkin’s best shot at victory is to vary his approach more than in the second fight. He needs to find a way to restrict Alvarez’s movement and pin him in a corner to land a knockout blow, playing to his advantage as a power hitter.
Bonus Pick Among Alvarez vs Golovkin 3 Betting Odds
Alvarez to Win in Round 9 @ 26.00 (25/1)
Five years ago, Golovkin walked into an overhead right by Alvarez that nearly stopped the fight. Should Alvarez pull a repeat of this match, his additional power would surely end in a round nine KO this time, which is an exciting variant for risky punters.
Golovkin in Round 4 to 6 @ 29.00 (28/1)
Both fighters will come out tentative, respecting each other’s weapons. However, if Golovkin is to win this one, it will need to be by knockout. Given his age, the best chance of doing so will be in the first half of the fight after seeing out the early rounds. Yes, it’s risky enough, but the odds allow you to bet a little cash but win big if GGG is ready to surprise a favourite.
Our Canelo vs Golovkin Betting Tips
- Fight to go over 10.5 rounds @ 2.6 (8/5)
- Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 10 to 12 @ 5.75 (9/2)
- Alvarez to win in Round Nine @ 26.00 (25/1)
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What was an incredibly tight rivalry in 2017 and 2018 has now seen the two boxers take divergent paths—Alvarez getting bigger and stronger, Golovkin getting older and slower. The bottom line is that the final fight in this trilogy was set about three years too late.
While it’s exciting to see the two meet one last time to compete for the WBA/WBC/IBF/WBO belts, the result isn’t really in question here. At 1.2 (1/5) at the bookies, we will likely see Alvarez come out on top with an easy win over one of boxing’s greatest.