Germany travel to Milan for the first leg of their 2024/25 UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash against Italy. The Germans dominated A3, finishing top of their group, while their opponents, Italy, finished second behind France in group A2. Can Germany continue its impressive winning streak in this competition? Our Italy vs Germany predictions guide provides likely outcomes for this game.
Italy has failed to win any of its last six encounters with Germany. Can it finally secure a win against Die Mannschaft on Thursday?
| ℹ️ Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2024-25, Quarterfinal (1st Leg) |
| ⚽️ Venue: | San Siro Stadium, Milan, Italy |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20 March 2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 GMT on Thursday |
Best football bookmakers in 2025 rate the chances of either side’s victory equally, with both teams offered odds of 2.70 (5/3) to win. Italy vs Germany odds for a draw are currently available at 3.20 (9/4).
The last five meetings between both teams have been three draws. Germany has won two games in the last five, their most recent victory on June 14, 2022.
Italy finished second in Group A2, level on 13 points with France but trailing on goal difference. Neither Belgium nor Israel were able to fight for the playoffs place in this quartet, while the Azzurri secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in six matches.
Meanwhile, Germany topped Group A3 with 14 points, remaining unbeaten with four victories and two draws. They showed more than enough confidence against the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Since their Round of 16 exit to Switzerland at Euro 2020, Italy has improved under Spalletti. The new manager has instilled consistency, guiding them to five unbeaten games in the League A group stage before a narrow loss to France.
Italy netted 13 goals while conceding eight in six Nations League matches. Their attacking threat could rise further with in-form strikers Retegui and Kean added to the squad. These Serie A’s top two scorers could be pivotal and will be eager to make a difference on Thursday.
Matteo Ruggeri, Pietro Comuzzo, and Cesare Casadei could make their international debuts, while Nicolò Fagioli and Zaniolo were left out.
Germany remains unbeaten in this Nations League campaign, winning four and drawing two while netting 18 goals and conceding just four. Die Mannschaft’s strong away form includes a win and two draws, notably a 2-2 result against Hungary. Since their Euro 2024 quarter-final loss to Spain, they’ve gone six games unbeaten with five victories.
Kimmich, the squad’s most-capped player, will earn his 98th appearance, while Nagelsmann marks his 20th game as head coach with this game. He boasts 11 wins, five draws, and three losses.
Nagelsmann is missing top goalkeepers Ter Stegen and Neuer, while Wirtz and Havertz are also sidelined. Adeyemi is back with the German squad for the first time since his December 2022 callup.
Here are our Italy vs Germany betting predictions:
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Several betting sites in Italy see Gli Azzurri as the favorite to win at San Siro, but historical records speak otherwise. Italy have not defeated Germany in their last six meetings, including four successive draws at home. Naglesman’s team enjoyed brilliant form during the group stage, but their two draws were on away soil. The Italians have lost just once in their last ten home matches. So, we expect a tough battle that could result in a stalemate on Thursday.
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Both teams feature impressive offensive capability and demonstrated their goal-scoring prowess during the group stage. Germany’s previous six Nations League away fixtures and five of Italy’s last six matches resulted in goals from both competing sides. Furthermore, seven of their eight most recent encounters have seen each team score. Considering this pattern, we anticipate another match with goals from both teams.
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Jamal Musiala continues showcasing his amazing talents for club and country this season. The 22-year-old has 11 goals in 23 Bundesliga starts, exceeding his 8.34 xG. He also netted three times in both the Champions League and DFB Pokal. With five goals in his last nine Germany appearances, Musiala will be crucial in attack, especially with Havertz and Wirtz unavailable for this match. The best German sportsbooks are backing him to score with odds of 4.50 (7/2).
Here are our Italy vs Germany betting picks:
The pattern of four consecutive draws in recent meetings, combined with the high stakes of this first-leg match, points toward another potential stalemate on Thursday. Feel free to use our Italy vs Germany betting tips to stake on the game and win extra cash.
