The final big UFC event of the year is here this weekend, with UFC 296 kicking off at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday night. Headlining the evening will be Leon Edwards and Colby Covington, fighting it out for the UFC Welterweight Championship in the main event of the night. With welterweight glory plus a bucket load of money on the line, who will prevail? We look at all the latest Edwards vs Covington odds in this betting preview.
Edwards heads into this bout as the defending champion and is favored for good reason. The pair have both squared off against Kamaru Usman in recent years, with contrasting results – Edwards for two wins, Covington for two losses. Can the American spring a massive upset here at UFC 296 and flip the division on its head? Read on for our UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington predictions.
| ℹ️ Event: | UFC 296 Main Event, for Welterweight Championship Title |
| 🏟️ Venue: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16 December, 2023 |
| ⏰ Time: | From 6:00 PM EST on Saturday |
Here’s a quick overview of the bookmakers’ winner odds in this main event ahead of Saturday night’s fight from the latest UFC odds:
Odds at major bookmakers opened nearly even earlier in the week but have quickly moved to favor the reigning champion Edwards. The Brit is a moderate favorite at 1.57 (4/7) to win, ahead of Covington’s 2.37 (11/8) in the outright betting odds.
Method of victory odds have this one ending as an Edwards’ decision at 2.60 (8/5), while a points victory to Covington is right behind at 3.25 (9/4). Knockouts for each man are next at 4.50 (7/2) for Edwards and 7.00 (6/1) for Covington before both sit at 11.00 (10/1) to win by submission.
Many are saying it’s the era of Leon Edwards now, and it’s hard to argue against this line of thinking. The Brit bounced back emphatically from losing two of his first four UFC fights and is now on an 11-fight winning streak in the division. Most recently, he’s concluded a trilogy against Kamaru Usman with a shock knockout in 2022, followed by a dominant decision win in March of this year.
Everything? Edwards is by far the more powerful striker, and has shown that he’s a more than adept grappler by the way he fended off Usman in their past two bouts. The Brit will back himself to avoid Covington’s takedown attempts and hurt him with brisk strikes on the way through.
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Patchy at best. Covington has just one win since 2020 and hasn’t fought in over a year. Unlike Edwards, he’s lost two of his past four fights in the division, both of which have been to Kamaru Usman. This has raised questions over why Covington is getting a title shot – many say it’s simply because of his star power and smack talk, as opposed to genuine credentials.
Covington would say his takedown game and skills on the mat are superior, but Saturday night will see whether or not this is correct. Outside of this, it’s the American’s cardio and general ferocity of attack – he’ll come at Edwards with a relentless pace and hope to overwhelm him. Plus, he’s tough and doesn’t mind wearing a few.
We’ve looked at all the best MMA betting odds, and now it’s time to do something about it. Here are our top Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington tips:
2 (100%)
0
Go watch the replay of Edwards vs Usman 3. That’s why we recommend this bet. By and large, Usman is a better fighter than Covington, as evidenced by his two wins against the American in recent years. There’s really no logical argument for Covington winning this one – Edwards should be too skilled and too powerful. The only question is whether it will be a knockout or a points victory, which is why our conservative bet simply recommends taking the 1.57 (4/7) wager that covers both eventualities in this bout.
2 (100%)
0
If we had to pick a side, we’re in team Edwards, winning by knockout. Look at the way he defended Usman’s takedowns and hurt him on the approach. Covington is slightly less skilled than Usman, meaning more openings for Edwards to use his power as Covington tries to get in close and smother the Brit.
Again, just watch Edwards vs Usman 2 for some persuasion. Edwards has fight-ending power available to him in one shot, so it doesn’t matter whether Covington throws the kitchen sink at him or not – all it takes is one connection from the champion, and this one’s all over.
1 (50%)
(50%) 1
To be clear: we don’t think this is the most likely outcome. However, if this fight were to occur 10 times, do we think Covington would score one submission? Sure – which makes this bet at 11.00 (10/1) a decent wager for those after some high odds to take.
Covington will be looking to get in and take this one to the floor. While Edwards successfully defended this approach in his recent fights, all it takes is one mistake for the clash to be all over. With the American holding six career submissions, there’s every chance he’ll add another to that tally on Saturday if he had Lady Luck on his side.
The UFC wraps up for the year this Saturday night with a tantalizing clash between rivals Leon Edwards and Colby Covington for the UFC Welterweight Championship. We say Edwards will continue to establish his pound-for-pound credentials with a successful defense. Back the Brit to win outright for a safe bet among the variety of betting lines or by knockout for a slightly juicier return, and watch the UFC 296 main event with double joy.
