Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Betting Tips and Picks (Super Middleweight, May 6)

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Betting Tips & Predictions

This Saturday night in Guadalajara, the moment Mexican boxing fans have been waiting for occurs. Canelo Alvarez returns home, fighting on Mexican soil for the first time in 11 years. His opponent, John Ryder, will be in for a tough time if he’s to claim the Super Middleweight IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO titles from the home favorite.

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder: Event Details

Despite this largely appearing like a ‘stay busy’ fight for Alvarez, anything can happen in boxing. John Ryder is no mug, and with the British veteran holding his own against three shared opponents over the past few years, this could well be a fascinating contest. We break down the Canelo vs Ryder odds and analyze the best Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder betting tips ahead of the weekend’s main event.

ℹ️ Weight Class/Division: Super middleweight, 12 rounds (IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO titles)
🏟️ Venue: Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
🗓️ Date: May 6th, 2023
⏰ Time: from 9:00 PM EST

Head-to-Head: Alvarez vs Ryder

John ‘the Gorilla’ Ryder and Santos Saul Alvarez Barragan have never met before as professionals. However, they have fought a common opponent recently in Callum Smith – a bout that Alvarez won and Ryder lost, albeit contentiously. Prior to this, they shared two other opponents in common – Daniel Jacobs and Rocky Fielding, with Alvarez beating both and Ryder beating Jacobs but losing a split decision to Fielding.

Alvarez vs Ryder Odds

If betting on boxing bouts is second nature to you, then below is all you need to know to get started. These are the latest Canelo vs Ryder betting odds:

  • Canelo Alvarez to win @ 1.07 (1/14)
  • John Ryder to win @ 8.00 (7/1)

Unsurprisingly, Canelo Alvarez is the heavy favorite here. With odds of 1.07 (1/14), Alvarez is well ahead of Ryder’s odds to win, which sit at a long 8.00 (7/1). If the 34-year-old Brit is going to head to Mexico and defeat their champion in front of 50,000 fans, he’ll have to pull off one of the biggest upsets in boxing history.

Canelo Alvarez’s Recent Boxing Form

While Canelo Alvarez holds an enormously impressive professional record of 58-2-2, his form heading into this clash is somewhat questionable. The Mexican has been sidelined since September 2022 with a hand injury that has undergone surgery. Alvarez’s last fight was a fairly underwhelming decision victory against Gennadiy Golovkin, prior to which he lost to Dmitrii Bivol at light heavyweight.

Canelo’s Advantages Over Ryder

Almost everything. Firstly, the more intangible advantages can’t be underestimated – fighting at home after more than a decade and boxing with a rematch against Bivol on the cards. Both of these factors will have Alvarez very tuned in on Saturday. Outside of this, it is power, fight IQ, and general skill set that puts Alvarez well ahead of Ryder in terms of their ability as boxers.

John Ryder’s Recent Boxing Form

There’s no denying that John Ryder has well and truly earned this bout. The veteran’s last loss came in 2019 when he narrowly dropped a decision against Callum Smith for the WBA and WBC titles. Since then, Ryder has won four straight to get himself back into title contention. Most recently, Ryder defeated fellow Brit Zach Parker via a fifth-round retirement, a man who was previously undefeated.

Ryder’s Advantages Over Alvarez

Very few. The bottom line is, Ryder won’t be on anyone’s radar to win this fight and is largely seen as heading down to Mexico to pick up a paycheque. In some ways, this gives him an advantage, as he’ll be boxing with zero pressure or expectation. Practically, Ryder has a slight reach advantage and the ability to create interesting angles with his southpaw stance.

Best Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Predictions

While Mexican boxing bookmakers are understandably offering low odds for an Alvarez win, our boxing experts have scanned the betting markets and come up with several strong Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder tips. Here’s a look at our top Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder predictions:

Canelo Alvarez to Win by Knockout @ 1.28 (2/7)

Not the most lucrative bet, but the most likely. Alvarez has 39 knockouts in his 62 fights, putting him at a 62.9% knockout rate. Prior to his fight against Golovkin, Alvarez was on a three-fight knockout streak at the super middleweight level. Add the motivation of fighting in front of a home crowd and wanting to put on a show, with Ryder’s southpaw stance, and there’s a good likelihood that the Mexican will be able to walk his opponent into a power shot at some stage in the 12-round bout.

Canelo Alvarez to Win Round 7-9 @ 3.40 (12/5)

We say that moment will come in the mid-late rounds of this bout. John Ryder is a competent boxer and is best known for his grinding style. With Alvarez having not been in the ring for the best part of a year and still recovering from hand surgery, it would not be a surprise if the champion made a tentatively slow start to this clash.

However, Alvarez will want the 50,000 Mexican fans at Estadio Akron who have paid to come to see their hero to have something to cheer about. Expect him to ramp up his attack past the halfway point of the fight and not leave it too late – he won’t want this going to the judges and will likely pull the trigger in rounds 7-9.

Canelo Alvarez to Win by Decision @ 4.00 (3/1)

There is an alternative betting line here, and that’s backing Alvarez to win by decision. If this fight somehow goes the distance, it’s almost certain Alvarez will win – his general boxing prowess, combined with judges in Mexico, makes for only one likely outcome.

The way that this bout could go the distance is if Alvarez plays risk-averse boxing, realizing that he has everything to lose and nothing to gain from the knockout. Combine this with Ryder boxing out of his skin, and there’s an outside chance we go the distance here for an Alvarez victory.

  • Canelo Alvarez to Win by Knockout @ 1.28 (2/7)
  • Canelo Alvarez to Win Round 7-9 @ 3.40 (12/5)

Mexican boxing fans finally get to see their champion Alvarez in the flesh this weekend. After 11 years, Canelo Alvarez will defend his IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO titles against Britain’s John Ryder in what the bookies are picking to be a one-sided match. By backing Alvarez to win in the mid-late rounds, however, there are still some good betting returns to be made on this title fight.

Sergio E
CEO & Founder

Sergio is our CEO and betting expert. He is a big football fan. Sergio is the guy that runs it all and the one who got the BetZillion idea. Sergio’s favourite sports include football, handball, futsal, American football, and boxing.

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