The “Vig” betting strategy focuses on understanding the term “vigorish.” Also known as juice or margin, it refers to the commission the sportsbook takes for accepting your wager. The vig, which ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome, is included in the odds. For instance, an event might feature two teams that have equal probability of winning. Instead of offering odds of 100, the operator will price each side at -110. Now, you’d have to stake $110 to win $100 in profits, and that leftover $10 is the vig.
Vig is the main source of profit for bookmakers and gives them an edge regardless of how the bets are distributed. Gambling sites ensure that money can come in both sides of the wager with the vig. That’s why odds change as we get closer to an event. The goal is to get the action on one side of the bet where the vig percentage is higher, which guarantees a profit for the sportsbook.
The effect of adjusting the vig on sports betting has a drastic impact on the odds. It accurately represents the actual probability of an outcome, unlike wagering with the vig, which provides implied probability.
All the bets you place are on juiced odds, but it’s essential to know how to remove the vig and see the actual price.
The earliest and last odds posted by the bookmaker consider profitability and not the most likely outcome of an event. Removing the vig will give you a much more accurate representation of what might happen in a sports match. You’ll be able to see the actual probability compared to the implied probability reflected in the odds offered by a bookie.
Removing the vig will allow you to wager on odds that haven’t been juiced.
The vig in online sports betting can be accounted for by using a specific formula that removes the bookmaker’s margin. This involves converting the odds into implied probabilities and adjusting them so that the total equals 100%, reflecting the true odds of both participants.
You first need to calculate implied probability using the odds posted by the bookie. For American odds, there are two formulas:
Let’s check an example using the game between the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Packers are the favorites at -200:
The Jaguars are +170, meaning their implied probability is:
In this case, the probabilities add up to 103.7%, which means the vig is 3.7%.
In order to find the actual probability, use the following formula:
In our example, the calculation would go as follows:
It will get you to 100% and successfully remove the vig. The actual odds should be -156 on the Packers and +180 on the Jaguars.
The vig betting strategy isn’t a wagering tactic like the over/under approach and doesn’t have elements of systems like Martingale. By removing the vig, punters will get a clear idea of the actual probability, helping them realize who has the advantage in a sports match. It helps them spot the bookie’s edge and find value bets.
We showed you how to calculate the vig and remove it using a practical example, but now let’s take a deeper look.
Calculating the vig isn’t a strategy, but it shows you who has the upper hand in a sports match. It’s an approach that allows bettors to see realistic odds and what the bookmaker really thinks about the possible outcome of a game.
Using decimal odds, the implied probability formula is:
For example, if the odds on a market are 1.30, the implied probability is 76.9%, making that side a heavy favourite for the match.
A special formula can calculate pre-match or live betting vig, displaying it as a percentage. Here’s how to do it:
Using this formula requires knowing the overround. The sum of implied probabilities is always larger than 100%. The difference between the sum and 100% is the overround.
You only need to use the actual probability formula to see the odds without the juice. As demonstrated in our example, you only need to divide the implied probability of one team by the sum of the implied probabilities of both teams.
De-juicing the odds is an excellent idea for bettors who like to see what they’re actually worth. Juiced prices include the vigorish, so they don’t accurately represent each team’s (or player’s) strength.
The vigorish changes as dramatically as the odds. Punters know that early prices differ greatly from the odds available just before the kick-off. As they go up, so does the juice. If they go down, the vig goes down, too. There’s a direct link between betting activity and the vig, and it’s important to keep that in mind when you remove it. If users are placing more wagers on one side, the bookmaker will increase the vig in order to cut their potential losses.
The vig represents the guaranteed bookie profit if the prices attract action on all outcomes in a match. Overround is the combined sum of all reciprocals in a particular market. The terms are often confused, but they are not the same thing.
The vig depends on the type of bet you chose. Some markets include bigger vig compared to others. Below, you can see the most common types across various popular betting markets.
Moneyline odds are harder to read than decimal odds, so the moneyline vig may be confusing to new bettors. When positive, they represent the amount of money you need to wager to earn $100. When negative, they represent how much money you need to stake to win $100. You can calculate the wig on the moneyline using the formula provided in the example above.
The standard pricing for point spread betting is -110 on both sides. These markets usually have the vig on the lower side. It’s easier to calculate and see if the odds represent value.
The vig on totals is similar to the vig on point spreads. It’s less volatile than the moneyline betting vig and easy to calculate.
The vig on prop bets is typically higher, so you are paid slightly less than regular wagers since there’s a trade-off in the value of these bets.
The true odds in parlay betting are not paid, so the vig here is pretty high. The more teams you add to your slip, the higher the juice is.
The vig betting strategy can be used for all sports because it relies on odds. Once you learn to calculate it, you can remove it from any market and always know what you get. It isn’t a particular strategy per se, but it still works to check the actual (not implied) odds in baseball, football, or horse racing betting.
Just like in football, baseball moneylines are volatile and high. Remove the juice from these bets, and you’ll easily see who the real favourite is.
The majority of MLB betting activity focuses on moneyline bets. Bookies and betting apps with cash out often inflate the vig on these wagers, so it pays off knowing how to remove it in order to find the best odds.
Bookies make a lot of money off football vigs due to the large number of matches taking place on a weekly basis. It is important to remove the juice from the offered odds on football because they include larger vig due to 1X2 markets.
Many bettors say that the secret of beating racebooks is overcoming the vig. It’s easier said than done, but you can remove the wagering vig from underdogs to see the real dark horse. You can use the same formula to calculate implied probabilities and actual probabilities by using odds for each horse in a race. The vig on the race courses is much higher than online. Plus, it’ll cost you to get to the actual race, so finding a racebook on the web is a better BetZillion gamble strategy.
It’s not a betting strategy, but you can benefit from removing the vig on the prices of events you are interested in wagering on. It’s the only way to check the real odds of a team or player and get a better idea of your chances.
We hope that our guide gave you an idea of the vig in betting and how to remove it. It may be confusing at first, but mastering it will help you find more value wagers.
