The 2024 NBA Finals are set. Fancied to make it this far all season long, the Boston Celtics cruised through the Eastern Conference. The tale in the Western Conference was markedly different, with the Dallas Mavericks overcoming the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Dallas is looking to win their first title since 2011. Boston is after its first since 2011. NBA betting odds fancy the Celtics to win this series, but Luka Dončić and co. have played at an elite level since the trade deadline.
Whether you’re staying up until the early hours following on bookmaker streaming or catching up in the morning, here are our three best outright wagers for the 2024 NBA Finals.
The Celtics went 12-2 through the East playoffs. They have five of the seven best players in the series. Boston is clearly the better all-around team, and deserves to be favoured, but we cannot overlook this price on the Mavericks to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Dallas went 12-3 over the last 15 games of the regular season. They just won three road games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, after overcoming the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder as the lower seed. Being mediocre in shot quality and net rating in the regular season doesn’t tell us much about this version of the Mavs.
P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have massively elevated their defence. Jason Kidd is coaching at a very high level. Even Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving are putting the effort in on the defensive end, and they are unstoppable offensively in close games.
The Mavs carry a 35.7% implied probability at this price. That’s simply too low – our BetZillion`s advice is to back the Mavs to win the series.
Dončić just averaged 32, 10 and eight on his way to Western Conference Finals MVP. Triple-double records are tumbling – he’s already got seven this postseason.
Even the best bookies for basketball are not making Dončić MVP favourite. There’s good reason for that. If the Celtics are comfortably favoured to win the series, a Celtic surely has to be the favourite for Finals MVP. After all, Jerry West is the only player in the history of the award to win it on the losing team.
Your WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS MVP: Luka Dončić.#OneForDallas // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/ZSe5b3UktR
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 31, 2024
The counterpoint, though, is that the Celtics’ greatest strength is their top-end depth. Jaylen Brown pipped Jayson Tatum to the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, or Derrick White could swing this series and compete for Finals MVP.
For Dallas to take this series deep, Dončić has to maintain his level from the Conference Finals. We’re talking 30+ point triple doubles, game-winning shots, and the rest of the Dončić experience.
If Dallas wins the series, Dončić will definitely win the award. If they take it to six or seven games and lose, there’s still a chance Dončić will win it if no Celtic stands out above the rest. He’s the exact high-usage profile which could follow in West’s footsteps.
Some of the lines set by NBA bookmakers this postseason have been made to look silly. Road teams have been unfussed by supposed homecourt advantage.
Dallas got three of their four Conference Finals wins on the road. Boston’s only two losses have come at TD Garden, with a clean sweep on the road so far. The Mavericks are 7-2 on the road in these playoffs, including clutch game two wins in the first two rounds.
Taking the over on 2.5 road wins is backing it to be a long series. It’s unlikely there are three road wins in a five-game series, but if it goes to six or seven, three road wins is well within reach. Homecourt doesn’t seem to make too much difference to these two teams.
