Dustin Poirier won the sweepstakes for the next shot at UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. The popular veteran will face the Russian on June 1, when the Octagon lands in New Jersey for UFC 302.
Poirier is already a significant underdog, and that’s understandable. While he scored a dazzling knockout victory over surging contender Benoit Saint-Denis in his last fight, that was preceded by a jarring knockout loss to Justin Gaethje.
The 35-year-old also came up short in his last two bids for the lightweight belt, suffering submission losses to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is now Makhachev’s training partner and mentor.
The champion, meanwhile, has been the picture of dominance lately with any bookmaker with highest odds. He recently extended his win streak to 13 straight with a pair of victories over former pound-for-pound king Alexander Volkanovski and a submission win over Oliveira before that.
The 32-year-old looks increasingly unbeatable each time he steps inside the Octagon, having bolstered his world-class grappling with a vicious striking game.
While Makhachev looks like the safe pick in this fight, Poirier has proved time and again that he is capable of beating any lightweight, and there will be plenty of betting fans who pick him to defeat the champion in what will most likely be his final bid for a UFC title. There is a real chance Poirier could win this fight by knockout, especially if he decides to go for broke, knowing he will likely never get another chance to fight for the lightweight belt.
However, the far more likely outcome, much as it might pain the American’s fans, is that he is taken down, controlled, and either battered to a TKO loss or submitted, just like most others Makhachev has fought lately.
Given Poirier’s unfortunate history of tapping out in title fights, we’ll go with the latter option. The American might land some nice shots early, but before the end of the third round, he’ll be locked up in a rear-naked or arm-triangle choke with no choice but to tap or nap.
