When it comes to college basketball, two of the most popular statistical systems are KenPom and Sagarin. Most experienced bettors often consider these systems before wagering on games. Interestingly, many bookmakers also include them in their research process when determining point spreads and totals.
But what exactly are KenPom and Sagarin, and why have they become such key tools in college basketball analysis? In this article, I’ll make a thorough comparison of Kenpom vs Sagarin, reviewing their rating systems and pros and cons while covering how they work. Let’s dive right in!
Kenpom and Sagarin are advanced metrics systems that provide insights into team performances in college basketball games. These ranking systems employ a deeper and more comprehensive approach to sports statistics. This is why bettors use them to make informed betting decisions, and bookmakers use them to set more accurate point spreads. In fact, even coaches sometimes use the tools to prepare better for games.
However, these rankings are not just arbitrary ratings. Ken Pomeroy, a former meteorologist, developed this system to accurately reflect the quality and efficiency of basketball teams via stats. According to him, the Kenpom rankings offer insights into how strong a team would be if they were to play immediately. It utilizes stats like offensive and defensive efficiency, margin of victory, shooting percentage, recent performances, schedule difficulty, pace and tempo, etc., to determine the strengths and weaknesses of a team.
It’s essential to note that the KenPom performance–based ranking system is not completely foolproof. Yes, it offers valuable insights that are reliable enough to make near–accurate predictions of teams’ performances. However, it does not perfectly account for unpredictable factors like player injuries, fatigue, or team morale. This means that upsets and unexpected performances can still occur despite what the ranking suggests.
The table below shows the pros and cons of the KenPom ranking system:
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| The KenPom system takes a comprehensive approach, accurately showing how efficient a team is offensively and defensively. | The KenPom ranking system focuses only on college basketball. It doesn’t cover other leagues or sports. |
| Unlike many other stats systems, it takes into consideration factors like tempo, which are often overlooked. | The ranking system does not consider external factors like injuries, coach change, or player suspension. |
| KenPom’s metrics are designed to predict future game outcomes more effectively. This makes it highly valuable for bettors looking for accurate predictions. | Although it’s very reliable, the metrics can be difficult for casual basketball fans to understand. |
| The KenPom ranking system has really helped sportsbooks by providing more accurate data to set betting lines. In fact, looking for a bookie that doesn’t use the KenPom system today might be difficult. | Unlike before, most bookmakers now use the KenPom metrics. So, even if they are reliable, bettors can’t really take advantage of them to get value bets and big payouts as frequently as before. |
Like Kenpom, you can also refer to Sagarin rankings to determine the quality and strength of a team compared to another. For example, in a game between a team ranked 5th in the Sagarin ranking and another ranked 20th, you would be better off favoring the fifth-ranked team.
Mathematician Jeff Sagarin developed the Sagarin rankings, which are used across several sports besides college basketball. Unlike KenPom, Sagarin’s system puts more weight on factors like strength of schedule, game location, and margin of victory. There are also other elements that influence the rankings. However, since Sagarin is less open about how his calculations work compared to Ken Pomeroy, the exact details behind his numbers aren’t as clear.
Both systems have their fair share of drawbacks. An obvious limitation of KenPom and Sagarin is that they don’t factor in player injuries. Beyond that, the Sagarin system’s emphasis on the margin of victory can also sometimes skew the rankings. For example, a team can win with very high margins against weak opponents, which will artificially boost their rating.
The table below shows the pros and cons of the Sagarin ranking system:
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| The Sagarin ranking system is not limited to only college basketball. It also extends to other sports and leagues. | Although it extends to other sports, the system is not applied exactly the same way. It works more perfectly for college basketball than for others. |
| When you compare KenPom vs Sagarin, Sagarin’s stats are relatively more straightforward and easier to understand. | It overlooks some statistical details, which is why the KenPom system is usually preferred. |
| Although it overlooks some statistical details, it’s still outstandingly reliable, with a 75% success rate in predicting game winners and 53% for point spreads. | It also doesn’t take factors like injuries into consideration. |
| Unlike KenPom, where you have to subscribe, Sagarin doesn’t require bettors to pay before they can access and use the ranking system. | The Sagarin system is too reliant on the margin of victory. This can sometimes misrepresent the true strengths or weaknesses of a team. |
As mentioned earlier, Sagarin and KenPom predictions are usually closely aligned in their estimations. However, there are instances where they differ significantly. Most bettors and sportsbooks tend to favor KenPom rankings in this regard as they are believed to consider more variables. Either way, using the KenPom and Sagarin rankings can help you better understand a team’s performance and level of ability. And this can significantly improve your wagering decisions.
For example, in KenPom rankings, the adjusted offensive efficiency tracks how many points a team scores for every 100 possessions. Similarly, the adjusted defensive efficiency looks at how many points a team gives up. So, if a team has a high offensive efficiency, it means it is excellent at scoring. A low defensive efficiency, on the other hand, means they’re strong at stopping opponents from scoring.
As mentioned earlier, one common limitation when comparing the Sagarin vs Kenpom system is that both do not factor in injuries. They don’t consider the effect of injuries when analyzing, ranking, and predicting teams’ abilities and performances.
According to Ken Pomeroy, the KenPom ranking system relies only on historical data, which informs its predictions of a team’s overall performance. It’s nearly impossible to use these existing data to anticipate personnel changes in either of the competing teams. This is also the case for most other sports statistical ranking systems, including Sagarin. However, this is a main drawback, as the absence of key players can significantly impact a team’s overall performance and game outcomes. For example, if a team’s top scorer is injured, their offensive output will likely drop. Likewise, one injured key defensive player may cause a team to concede more points. So you should still include real time reports, such as injury reports and team news, in your analysis to make more accurate predictions.
However, when injuries occur, there are situations where the sportsbooks overreact by readjusting the betting lines. And since the KenPom and Sagarin rankings do not reflect the effects of injuries, their predicted lines or outcomes might be adrift of the lines set by the basketball betting sites. This could be a value bet opportunity if the games still go as predicted by the ranking in spite of injuries.
Sports is a game of data. This is why professional bettors prioritize stats when analyzing a team’s performance and potential. However, many sports statistics systems online do not accurately reflect the quality and performance of teams. And this is where KenPom and Sagarin metric systems stand out. These tools take a deeper and more comprehensive approach to sports statistics to reflect a near–accurate representation of teams’ abilities. This is why bettors, bookmakers, and even coaches use them.
However, regardless of how accurate and reliable these ranking systems are, they are not without their limitations. While they improve your chances of winning, they don’t guarantee a 100% chance of winning every bet you place. Therefore, it is important to use them as tools to enhance your own research, analysis, and strategies. Do not rely on them as a foolproof solution. Also, bet responsibly, manage your bankroll effectively, and avoid chasing losses.
