When you back the underdog in a sports match or event, you have a low chance of winning and, as a result, bigger odds. This type of wager is known as a longshot — a high-risk, high-reward strategy that can pay off significantly if you spot the right opportunity. While it’s not the safest approach, some smart punters are skilled at finding the longshots, analyzing their potential, and placing strategic bets for massive wins.
A longshot is a bet with a very low probability of winning. However, for a wager to be in this category, the lines must be high enough to offer significant value. For example, in a Manchester City vs Sky Bet League One side Charlton Athletic match, the odds for Charlton winning might be 17.0. This is because that outcome is highly unlikely.
However, if it’s a match like Manchester City vs. Aston Villa, where Villa is given 3.0 odds to win, backing Villa cannot be considered a longshot bet. Villa may be the underdog, but the prices suggest they have a fair chance of winning, which doesn’t provide enough value to be classified as a true longshot.
The lower the chances of an outcome occurring in sports wagering, the higher the odds assigned to it are. Now, you may ask why bookmakers assign high prices to low-outcome events and how they determine the lines for longshot bets. For one, odds reflect the probability of outcomes. So, to balance the books, it’s only natural that operators assign high prices to unexpected likelihoods and vice versa.
Furthermore, no one will bet on Charlton Athletic against Manchester City if the return isn’t significant. However, because of the massive potential payout, some might be willing to take a calculated risk depending on their analysis of how the match would go.
One of the keys to the success of sharp bettors is that before placing any wager, they consider the same factors that sportsbooks evaluate when setting odds. When you do this, you’re trying to identify underdogs with a realistic chance of causing an upset rather than just chasing massive prices.
For example, if you’re staking in a longshot horse racing system, you must check the horse’s historical performance. Has it pulled off an upset before? How did it fare in the last 3-5 races? How does it perform in specific race conditions? Who are the jockey and trainer? What is its weight? Does it have a lower weight advantage? Could the bookmaker have mispriced its chances of winning with the odds offered? Answering these questions will help determine whether a particular longshot is a value bet or an unlikely option.
There’s no guarantee that you will win in sports betting, so you must always be wise about your decisions. However, longshots require you to be even smarter, considering you’re backing outcomes condemned to lose.
One of the key longshot tips is to consider limiting your stake size since you’re going for big odds. Ensure it’s less than what you’d normally wager. A good starting approach is to only put 1% of your bankroll on these picks. You should also try to diversify your bets. Instead of putting all your money on one selection, spread it across multiple potential upsets. This way, even if most lose, a single win could still leave you profitable.
Also, as you find longshot winners, focus on looking for value bets and not just big odds. This involves identifying bets where the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker’s lines suggest. Focusing on such opportunities maximizes your potential returns over the long run. To find value wagers, consider factors like team/player performance, form, records, stats, and other important data to help you determine the actual likelihood of an outcome. There are several free odds comparison tools to help with this online.
Overall, longshot betting is all about smart risk-taking. So, while hunting for huge payouts, ensure you’re focused on finding value while keeping your bankroll in check. These bets can be highly rewarding, but patience, research, and discipline are key.
Every form of sports wagering is somewhat dependent on chance, only that the chance gets slimmer with longshots. However, if you follow the longshot betting tips outlined above, you can improve your chances.
Whether or not this approach is worth it depends on your style and expectations. If you’re looking for small, consistent wins, backing underdogs might not be the best strategy because you wouldn’t win as frequently. However, it can be an adaptable technique if you’re hoping for huge once-in-a-while lucrative wins.
I’d recommend you find the right balance between longshot sports bets and regular wagers. Above all, manage your bankroll wisely, take research seriously, and prioritize value.
